Holyrood by-elections don’t usually make headline news in Westminster – but pay attention to what happens on Thursday. The contest is a microcosm of trends swirling around the UK’s political landscape: the fracturing of the electorate, the Labour government’s sharp fall in popularity, the so-called “incumbency curse”, the parties’ efforts to set the narrative ahead of next year’s Scottish Parliament elections, support for independence, the rise of Reform and the emergence of net zero as a key political battleground.
The by-election was triggered by the death of Christina McKelvie, who had held the seat – once considered firm Labour territory – for the SNP since 2011. When it was last contested in 2021, the SNP had a majority of 4,582, with Labour second and the Conservatives in distant third. It should be a key target for a Scottish Labour party looking to retake Scotland after 19 years of SNP rule: Thursday is (or, at least, was) a bellwether of Anas Sarwar’s chances of becoming First Minister in 2026. A year ago, when the SNP was haemorrhaging support and John Swinney took over from Humza Yousaf as caretaker leader, that looked pretty likely. Now, not so much.
But 2026 isn’t just a major test of Labour and the SNP. While Wales is the big Reform target, Nigel Farage has also had his eye on Scotland, with the Holyrood elections another chance for Reform to show it can translate support in the polls into concrete results. Fresh from claiming a Westminster seat off Labour in Runcorn and Helsby last month by a dramatic six votes, Reform is looking to upset the status quo by throwing everything it has at Hamilton – a Holyrood seat that, just to add extra spice, is roughly covered by the Westminster constituency of Hamilton and Clyde Valley, currently held by Labour MP Imogen Walker, who is married to Keir Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney.
Reform has been getting personal. First, the party put out an advert of clips from a Sarwar speech, incorrectly claiming the Scottish Labour leader had said he would prioritise Pakistani communities. Challenged on this at his press conference last week, Farage doubled down and played the video to a room full of journalists, accusing Sarwar, who was born in Glasgow to Pakistani Muslim parents, of “introducing sectarianism into Scottish politics”. This weekend saw a second attack ad, this time claiming “Anas Sarwar is the one obsessed about race” and again taking clips out of context, with Farage suggesting at a press conference in Aberdeen on Monday (more on that in a moment) that Sarwar wanted South Asians to “take over” Scotland.
The backlash has been fierce. Sarwar has branded Farage a “poisonous, pathetic and toxic little man”, while Swinney has backed him, accusing Farage of bringing “racism and hatred” to the by-election race. Keir Starmer, who made attacking Reform his focus last week, said the party was creating a “toxic divide”. Some Labour figures believe the race row is helpful, as it highlights the most distasteful side of Reform and will remind people tempted to back Farage as a protest vote exactly what they are supporting. But there is also a worry that Farage is using Hamilton to experiment with how far he can go in this direction, treating the race as a “sandpit” for Reform to test out how effective personal attacks like this can be.
Reform is testing out something else too: its attacks on net zero. Farage’s speech on Monday was in Aberdeen, a three-hour drive on the opposite side of Scotland from where the by-election is taking place. Here, in the “oil capital of Europe”, the Reform leader dubbed net zero “the next Brexit”, calling out the “madness” of policies pursued both in Westminster and Holyrood. One of Reform’s main strategies for “evolving” from a protest party into a serious contender is to branch out from focusing primarily on immigration and Brexit. Farage, I was told by a Reform source, believes he has “banked” the immigration issue, and is looking for other policy areas where his party can differentiate itself from the Westminster consensus. Net zero is the next hot-button issue. And the Hamilton by-election is a chance to see how well this anti-deindustrialisation message plays in Scotland.
Reform sources are playing down their chances of actually winning the seat. In 2021, the party won 58 votes there, so even a second-place finish would be a remarkable result. But this is about momentum. On Monday, Farage revealed two councillors who had defected to Reform – one formerly Conservative and one (the first to do so) formerly Labour. Reform was also the only party to put their candidate up against the SNP for a debate on STV’s Scotland Tonight on Monday, with Labour making the strange decision to sit this one out. What was supposed to be an SNP-Labour contest has now turned into what looks like a two-horse race between the incumbent SNP and Reform.
Reform is currently the bookies’ second favourite in Hamilton, behind the SNP, while polling last month put Farage’s party on track to become the official opposition in Holyrood next year.
Three-way races are a headache to predict in a system where the vote can be split. But here are two wild-card factors to consider looking ahead to Thursday and what the result might mean. First, pollsters are still finding it next to impossible to estimate the backlash effect against Reform if it looks like it could actually win power. Farage may be building support for his party north of the border, but he himself remains deeply divisive. A Reform surge now could be good news for both Swinney and Sarwar, who will be fighting the incumbency curse next year.
Second, it could also have an impact on the independence cause. A new poll at the weekend suggested support for independence in Scotland would shoot from 54 to 58 per cent were Farage to become Prime Minister. That’s a powerful message for dejected Scottish nationalists hoping for a revival. If Reform does well on Thursday, you can see the SNP adverts writing themselves.
Whatever happens in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse in two days’ time, it will help set the political agenda in Westminster for the next year. Stay tuned.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: Robert Jenrick is embarrassing himself]
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