As the country heads to the polls for the second round of voting today (1 June), Poland is torn by two very different presidential candidates – the pro-European liberal Rafał Trzaskowski and the right-wing nationalist Karol Nawrocki. It’s impossible to predict who might win. It is also increasingly difficult to ignore the growing disillusionment that Poles feel toward politics.
Trzaskowski, who belongs to the Civic Coalition party and narrowly won the most votes in the first round of voting on 18 May, has been a firm supporter of the European Union and the strengthening of foreign ties. Though this position delights Poland’s neighbours and the West, the sentiment is not shared by a large proportion of the electorate who have been sceptical of pro-EU candidates in the past (including current prime minister Donald Tusk). Such candidates tend to be branded pro-German and mocked at rallies as elitist or anti-Polish. The liberal mayor of Warsaw, Trzaskowski’s support comes from the metropolitan-based, younger, professional classes. Yet his critics accuse him of selling out the country’s sovereignty and undermining the Polish traditions and values that are closely linked to the Catholic church.
In contrast to Trzaskowski, the nationalist historian Nawrocki has no political experience, despite being backed by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, which lost power under Donald Tusk’s coalition. He’s expressed admiration for Donald Trump’s Maga agenda and currently heads the Institute of National Remembrance which embraces nationalist historical narratives — they reject Poland’s involvement in the Holocaust under Nazi occupation, for example — and opposes publication of “false information” that “dishonours or harms the Polish nation”. His anti-Russian views combined with his pledge to block Ukraine’s accession to Nato appeals to Trzaskowski’s critics and could capture the votes that were cast for far-right politician Sławomir Mentzen in the first round of voting. Yet a shared beer between Mentzen and Trzaskowski, organised as part of Mentzen’s YouTube coverage of the election, is thought to have shifted the support of the far-right politician’s voters towards the mayor of Warsaw. Nawrocki hasn’t expressed a strong position on many of the country’s most pressing issues, like the predicted 289-billion-złoty (£57 billion) deficit for 2025 or immigration. Many of his opinions on topics like education and abortion mirror those of the Law and Justice party.
Despite Trzaskowski narrowly winning the first round, it’s impossible to say who will win the second vote. The final presidential debate, hosted by right-leaning Republika TV, took place on 28 May in the town of Końskie, though Trzaskowski made the bold move not to appear. (Trzaskowski lost in the 2020 election to Andrzej Duda after not turning up to the debate in Końskie; soon after the debate, Trzaskowski plummeted in the polls.) With both candidates neck-in-neck in the polls, the Polish media can’t decide whether Trzaskowski has once again lost his shot at presidency, or whether he will break through the “curse of Końskie”.
In many ways, the real momentum in this election campaign has come from abroad. A record number of 695,000 expats are registered to vote on 1 June, perhaps motivated by the fact that in Poland, presidents have a formal role in foreign and defence policies. A Trzaskowski win could establish Poland as a key player on the European stage and, as a Tusk ally, he could also aid the prime minister’s progressive reform. A Nawrocki win, meanwhile, could lead to the disengagement with the European Union on all matters excluding trade and potentially block Ukraine’s ascension into Nato. His stance on Poland reaching Net Zero by 2050 will also have an impact on the EU’s climate change policies.
Yet this international excitement barely ripples over the Polish public. The truth is, neither candidate is likely to have a ground-shaking impact on the lives of the electorate. A Trzaskowski win would likely bring with it an initial burst of hope, which is almost certain to grow into disillusionment over his often-contradictory positions on the LGBTQ rights, immigration and healthcare. A Nawrocki win, on the other hand, would likely isolate younger, progressive voters by prioritising the country’s frustrated right-wing. Nawrocki’s victory could cause a further spike in emigration among young people — already a long-running problem in Poland — as the historian looks to hinder Donald Tusk’s progressive agenda. Neither candidate presents solutions to the most pressing issues that divide the country, such as the influx of migrants crossing the Poland-Belarus border, the continuing war in Ukraine and inflation. It’s no surprise that turn out is now predicted to be just over 50 per cent in the second round. Rather than uniting, the political promises of this election campaign have only disillusioned the country more.
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